The situation for the entire Republican field mirrors the fluidity between the top three democratic contenders--anything can happen, but there's just enough of a pattern to make a prediction. Yet unlike the Democratic side, where many voters are struggling to determine whom they like most , the GOP uncertainty seems to stem from the negatives associated with each candidate (I echo Mathew Yglesias on this point). Guliani turns off the religious right, Huckabee offends the economic and foreign policy establishment, McCain angers the immigration demagogues, etc. Nonetheless, I believe Guliani will be the first candidate ever to slide his way to the nomination on a wave of negative momentum, though recent trends suggest a possible McCain comeback.
Guliani presciently decided to focus on the February 5th primaries instead of Iowa and New Hampshire, and this strategy plays perfectly to the dynamics of the campaign while also minimizing Guliani's weaknesses. Huckabee's rise in Iowa disrupted Romney's early-state plan and promises to shatter the Massuchettes governor's chances. Its currently a two-man race in Iowa between Romney and Huckabee, but the actual winner seems irrelevant at this point. Even if Romney squeaks by Huckabee on Thursday, the media will emphasize his financial and organizational advantages and likely marvel that the underfunded Huckabee could even make it as close as it is. For all his deliberateness, Romney has utterly failed in the expectation game--the media expects him to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, and his campaign depends on momentum from those two states to propel him through Super Tuesday. A new CNN poll out Wednesday shows McCain tying Romney in New Hampshire, suggesting that his support is already eroding there before the caucuses. Romney's early leads in Iowa and New Hampshire raised his expectations as well as his exposure, and the more people learn about Romney, the less they appear to like. Behind his handsome facade most voters seem to detect a say-anything phony (thoughts the Concord Monitor expressed last week: http://www.concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071222/OPINION/712230301 ).
Mike Huckabee has benefited from Romney's decline, but I doubt that his already falling support can survive much past Iowa. Romney's attacks have already taken a toll among the former Arkansas governor's Christian right base, and Huckabee's schtick will never win over the GOP establishment. The man is utterly unfit to be president, and he's used his recent rise in media attention to broadcast his total incompetence. He used Benazir Bhutto's recent assassination to wrongly assert that more illegal immigrants come from Pakistan than anywhere else save Mexico, betraying both his geopolitical ignorance and his shameless willingness to pander to fellow morons. I've gotta agree with Christopher Hitchens when he calls Huckabee "a cynical... moon-faced trued believer and anti-Darwin pulpit-puncher from Arkansas who doesn't seem to know the difference between being born again and born yesterday. " In other words, he's very much like George W. Bush, but without the family connections (thanks to Andrew Sullivan for the comparison). I doubt that even Republican primary voters are willing to risk another president as incompetent as our current one.
Fred Thompson's legendary laziness seems to have undermined his campaign, and the loony Ron Paul (who joins Huckabee in refusing to acknowledge evolution but stands alone in calling for a return to the Gold Standard) will never get past his niche of fellow 19th century nostalgics. So that leaves McCain and Guliani as the viable alternatives (my apologies to any Duncan Hunter supporters out there, though I doubt that you get internet access in whatever cave you're living in). I think McCain would make the strongest general election candidate and he's experiencing somewhat of a rebound, but it's most likely too little too late. His belief in the basic humanity of detainees and immigrants should be common to all credible candidates, but unfortunately puts him outside the mainstream of the GOP. His campaign's near collapse over the summer shielded him from his rivals' attention, but expect a desperate and well-funded Romney to barrage him from the right as the primary season begins in earnest. McCain may do well in independent-rich New Hampshire but I doubt that that support will translate to success in more conservative states.
The GOP tends to fall behind its front-runner early, but this campaign will likely lack a clear standard-bearer going into Super-Tuesday. Huckabee may win Iowa, Romney or McCain may win New Hampshire, but none will likely be able to claim much legitimate momentum going into February, benefiting the man with leads in the national polls, ie, Rudy Guliani. Guliani heeded controversial advice when he decided to functionally forgo Iowa and New Hampshire to campaign in Florida and other later-primary states. Conventional wisdom dictates that a candidate must finish at or near the top in the early states to even be relevant in February but, for the reasons outlined above, the 79 delegates to the Republican convention chosen before Florida will be just that: a tiny fraction of the total required to garner the party's nod. Even though Guliani's national numbers are slipping, he still holds commanding leads in most of the later primary states, and the flaws of the other candidates mean that more media attention will actually hurt their campaigns in the long run. The poor strength of the GOP field makes this the rare year when wins in Iowa and/or New Hampshire may actually hurt a campaign by exposing the candidates' flaws. Romney's support dipped as he became more well known in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Huckabee is echoing Romney's slide just as he becomes a media focal point.
Guliani needs the spotlight focused elsewhere, too, because his negatives dwarf even Romney's. Though he incessantly touts his New York record, a closer look reveals that the city's decline in crime rate began before his tenure and only mirrored the national trend of the 1990s. The city's Firefighters generally loathe the former mayor, and his decision to put the city's terrorism command center on the seventh floor of the city's most obvious target calls into question his judgment. September 11th works best for Guliani as a vague memory rather than a crisis to be examined in a campaign. His ties to the felonious Bernard Kerick and his messy personal life also tar his image, but the media whirlwind around Iowa and New Hampshire have largely kept these issues out of the public eye. Guliani has used his relative press and opponents' free pass to build organization and support in the states not used to such campaigning. Guliani is slipping under his opponent's dirty laundry line into the back-door of the nomination (to push a metaphor to the limit).
No comments:
Post a Comment