The only thing more dangerous than betting against a candidate with 30% leads in national polls is to predict the political process in the first place, but in honor of the late Evel Kneveval I've decided to live on the edge. Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination for the presidency and then beat Rudy Guliani in the general election. Here' s his path to the White House.
Polls almost unanimosly report a three way tie in Iowa between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards, but several factors indicate an edge for the Illinois Senator. First, though most polls put the three top candidates in a statistical dead heat, John Edwards almost always brings up the rear. Though he usually remains within the margin of error, his numbers reflect a consistent level of support of around 22%, likely from residual 2004 supporters, but usually 3-5 points off Obama and Hillary. Clinton's numbers have also remained fairly constant, hovering between 25-30 percent. Obama, however, has climbed in the polls as he has toured Iowa, and he's climbing at the right time. Taken individually, the polls do not reveal a frontrunner, but the taken together and across time they suggest that both Hillary and Edwards have topped out their support, while Obama has yet to approach his ceiling. Given the nature of the caucuses, where voters who's preferred candidate fails to garner at least 15% of caucusgoers at a given location must shift their support elsewhere (or leave), a higher ceiling of support predicts that more people are willing to give the candidate a second look. If Obama, Clinton and Edwards pull in between 60-75% of the vote as the polls would predict, that means that the remaining 4 candidates (Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich) will have to split the rest, decreasing the odds that they will achieve viability. If Edwards supporters are mostly his hardcore from 04, and Hillary is mostly loved or loathed, it means that Obama will likely pick up a plurality of the second phase votes and win the caucuses.
Hillary Clinton hoped that New Hampshire would be a "firewall" against an Iowa loss, but Obama seems to be pulling even there. Ironically enough, Clinton would do better if Edwards edges her out for second place in Iowa, since it may convince him to stay in the race. If Edwards comes in third in Iowa, which seems the mostly likely scenario, then he will have to drop out of the race. He lacks the fundraising to make a second charge, and his campaign's almost exclusive focus on Iowa betrays his dependence on that state. The large African-American vote in South Carolina, and that consituency's current and likely loyal support of Obama or Clinton makes a repeat of his 2004 performance there unlikely, meaning that Edwards, like Gephardt in 2004, will drop out after losing Iowa. There are five days between Iowa and New Hampsire, and Edwards concession will combine with the historical post-Iowa bounce to push Obama past Clinton in New Hampsire. Again, Hillary's high negativety ratings make it unlikely for erswhile Edwards supporters to switch their allegience to her. Indeed, Edwards and Obama draw mostly from the same pool of potential voters, that is, those who want radical change over self-proclaimed experience, his supporters are the least likely to back Clinton.
Kerry used victories in Iowa and New Hampshire to catapult him to the nomination in 2004, and he dynamics of this race mean that Obama victories in Iowa and New Hampsire would foster even greater momentum, especially in the next primary state, South Carolina. South Carolina's large African-American constiuency has been trending toward Obama recently, especially since the Oprah appearances, but most misgivings among that community toward Obama stem from his percieved inability to win the general election. Many African Americans harbor an understandable skepticism as to whether the nation would actually elect a black man to be president, but Obama victories in extremely white Iowa and New Hampshire would assuage those concerns and amplify the existing trend toward Obama in South Carolina. Edwards, who picked up South Carolina as his only primary victory in 2004, also retains some support there and as previously explained will likely shift to Obama.
Howard Dean maintained huge leads in the super-Tuesday states at this time in 2003, but Kerry's victories re-enforced his narrative of electibility. The converse is likely to happen to Hillary in 2008. Her recent attacks on Obama's electibility reveal her "closing argument", so losses in the first 3 primary states will completely shatter her campaign's narrative and utterly erode her support in the polls. The once inevetable candidate will endorse Obama for president by the middle of February.
No comments:
Post a Comment